【文章提供／大師輕鬆讀】
華爾街享盡世人關愛的眼神，但投資人千萬不要以為，金融市場存在的原因是要讓自己賺錢。相反的，世界上最大、最有組織的賺錢機器──華爾街，僅僅只為金融業圈內人的利益服務。華爾街運作的目的，從來都不是為了讓一般投資人賺錢，投資人最好能把這個殘酷的現實謹記在心。
For all the publicity Wall Street enjoys, investors should never assume the financial markets are set up to make them money. On the contrary, Wall Street – the world’s biggest organized money machine – serves the interests of the financial services industry insiders solely and exclusively. Wall Street was never intended to be something the average investor would benefit from financially and this is a fact-of-life investors will always be better off if they keep in mind.
在耀眼的外表之下，華爾街裡的公司行號其實一直在傳遞一個根本訴求：「相信我們，我們知道我們在做什麼，因為我們是專業人士。」從金融市場的本質來看，這是不可能的。因為每次當券商向買家提出買進建議時，就有另一個券商在勸人賣出，要不然就沒有市場了。每個進行交易的人，都希望自己站在對的那一邊，
但從邏輯上來說，不可能所有人都是對的。下次被推銷的時候，不要忘了這件事。華爾街的光環都是假的，它們假裝自己很準確，讓你產生信心，但真正的目的是要讓你跟錢說掰掰。
When you strip away all the glitz, the underlying message of Wall Street firms is always: “Trust us, we know what we’re doing because we’re professionals at this.” By definition, that’s impossible. For every trade which a broker suggests to a buyer, another broker is making a sell suggestion to a seller or else there wouldn’t be a market. Everyone hopes they will be on the right side of the deal but logically they cannot both be right. Keep that in mind the next time, you’re pitched. Wall Street positively oozes false glamour, contrived accuracy and manufactured confidence in order to separate you from your money.
【關鍵思惟】
「金融服務業靠準確性營造自己的形象，是一種經年累月在市場上創造億萬財富的技巧。它們不斷製造一種印象，讓人以為『投資是有方法的，而且只有我們了解其中的運作機制，所以一切就交給我們吧。』真相是，金融服務業的準確性，並不會高於醫學、建築或電腦科學。事情總有出錯的時候，人們會衝動行事，而且並不是每個人都會隨時隨地秉持善意行事。我可以找出好幾千則報紙頭條證明，自從在梧桐樹下開始股票交易就是這個樣子。我一直想告訴大家的是，並沒有『制度』這種東西。不管我們有多聰明，做事有多嚴謹，又或者程序有多精密，人就是會犯錯。最重要的是，『精確投資』本身就是一種邏輯上的謬誤。那些覺得自己的預測一定準確的人，注定會失敗。」
──約書華．布朗
【Key Thoughts】
“There is a financial services industry facade that has been built on the premise of precision, an artifice that’s been decades in the making and billions of dollars in the marketing. The implication of this perpetual campaign is that “there’s a right way to invest, and only we are privy to its mechanics, we’ll take it from here.” The truth is, there is no more precision in financial services than there is in medicine or architecture or computer science. Things go wrong, people act emotionally, and not everyone has the best intentions at all times. I have several thousand headlines dating back to when stock trading first took place under the Buttonwood Tree to prove this. The message I’ve tried to convey throughout is that there is no ‘system.’ We all are fallible no matter how smart or rigorous we may be, no matter how sophisticated our process. Most importantly, investing precision itself is a fallacy, and those who make forecasts with certainty are doomed.”
– Joshua Brown
※延伸閱讀：
‧戳破華爾街大騙局
【完整內容請見《大師輕鬆讀》No.448】